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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +26.13 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 7AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY79.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+26.13 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-16.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 11:01 AMAug 07, 11:17 AMAug 07, 11:33 AMAug 07, 11:48 AMAug 07, 12:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T11:01:42.053Z45.0%93.5%+48.5 pp
2026-08-07T11:05:41.893Z64.5%97.2%+32.7 pp
2026-08-07T11:07:39.895Z62.5%97.6%+35.1 pp
2026-08-07T11:09:37.897Z62.5%98.1%+35.6 pp
2026-08-07T11:16:42.274Z74.5%98.5%+24.0 pp
2026-08-07T11:18:34.008Z74.5%98.9%+24.4 pp
2026-08-07T11:20:40.646Z76.5%99.3%+22.8 pp
2026-08-07T11:31:36.453Z90.5%99.9%+9.4 pp
2026-08-07T11:35:44.586Z84.5%100.0%+15.5 pp
2026-08-07T11:58:27.124Z99.4%99.4%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T11:59:13.736Z99.4%99.4%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T12:04:22.277Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 79.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 28.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.1%. Marx fair UP is 79.4%.