VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +26.13 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 7AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 07, 11:00 AMAug 07, 11:16 AMAug 07, 11:32 AMAug 07, 11:48 AMAug 07, 12:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T11:45:13.346Z | 97.5% | 95.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:45:31.374Z | 95.5% | 95.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:46:39.395Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:48:21.932Z | 95.5% | 95.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:48:35.325Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:48:35.769Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:50:11.534Z | 96.5% | 97.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:50:23.027Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:50:36.452Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:52:29.453Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:52:43.503Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:52:44.367Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:54:18.683Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:54:30.504Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:54:35.665Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:55:13.402Z | 99.4% | 100.0% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:56:30.499Z | 98.3% | 98.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:58:09.124Z | 98.3% | 100.0% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:58:27.124Z | 99.4% | 99.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:59:13.736Z | 99.4% | 99.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:00:12.361Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:00:23.209Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:00:39.933Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:01:10.552Z | 99.9% | 100.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:02:10.280Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:02:40.604Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:02:41.308Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:03:14.566Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:04:10.317Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:04:22.277Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 79.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 28.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.1%. Marx fair UP is 79.4%.