Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +10.37 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 6PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY18.5%83.2% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY4.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+10.37 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN15.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 06, 10:01 PMAug 06, 10:16 PMAug 06, 10:32 PMAug 06, 10:47 PMAug 06, 11:02 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T22:01:40.967Z52.0%21.0%-31.0 pp
2026-08-06T22:03:33.355Z52.0%13.6%-38.4 pp
2026-08-06T22:05:37.156Z36.5%14.1%-22.4 pp
2026-08-06T22:07:50.422Z46.0%17.3%-28.7 pp
2026-08-06T22:17:36.489Z51.5%14.7%-36.8 pp
2026-08-06T22:19:38.418Z51.5%12.9%-38.6 pp
2026-08-06T22:21:34.156Z44.5%10.7%-33.8 pp
2026-08-06T22:23:35.503Z44.5%6.1%-38.4 pp
2026-08-06T22:25:51.560Z44.5%4.2%-40.3 pp
2026-08-06T22:33:36.130Z19.5%3.4%-16.1 pp
2026-08-06T22:37:38.812Z21.5%2.6%-18.9 pp
2026-08-06T22:58:40.067Z0.9%0.0%-0.9 pp
2026-08-06T22:59:14.062Z0.9%0.0%-0.9 pp
2026-08-06T23:02:21.274Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 4.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 18.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 83.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 82.4%, gross edge 14.6%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.7%. Marx fair UP is 3.4%.