VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +10.37 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 6PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 06, 10:01 PMAug 06, 10:16 PMAug 06, 10:31 PMAug 06, 10:47 PMAug 06, 11:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T22:49:28.616Z | 5.5% | 0.3% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:50:10.039Z | 5.5% | 5.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:50:27.456Z | 5.5% | 5.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:50:39.272Z | 5.5% | 0.2% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:50:40.314Z | 5.5% | 0.2% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:51:11.994Z | 5.5% | 0.2% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:51:16.375Z | 3.5% | 0.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:51:23.777Z | 5.5% | 0.2% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:52:10.451Z | 2.8% | 5.6% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:52:22.348Z | 5.5% | 5.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:52:36.293Z | 5.5% | 0.1% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:54:26.148Z | 5.5% | 5.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:54:37.880Z | 2.8% | 0.0% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:55:10.072Z | 2.8% | 0.0% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:56:23.925Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:56:42.626Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:56:47.791Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:57:14.183Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:58:10.048Z | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:58:28.550Z | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:58:39.602Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:58:40.067Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:59:14.062Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T23:00:09.973Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T23:00:27.914Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T23:00:39.103Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T23:00:40.866Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T23:01:10.090Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T23:02:10.367Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T23:02:21.274Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 4.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 18.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 83.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 82.4%, gross edge 14.6%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.7%. Marx fair UP is 3.4%.