VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +34.55 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 5PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY12.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+34.55 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-11.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 59.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Aug 06, 09:00 PMAug 06, 09:15 PMAug 06, 09:30 PMAug 06, 09:44 PMAug 06, 09:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T21:00:51.930Z	50.5%	5.8%	-44.7 pp
2026-08-06T21:08:35.253Z	68.5%	8.5%	-60.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:10:47.536Z	72.0%	6.5%	-65.5 pp
2026-08-06T21:16:48.903Z	67.5%	6.7%	-60.8 pp
2026-08-06T21:20:39.845Z	58.5%	3.7%	-54.8 pp
2026-08-06T21:30:43.505Z	61.5%	1.6%	-59.9 pp
2026-08-06T21:32:33.239Z	61.5%	1.7%	-59.8 pp
2026-08-06T21:34:34.728Z	71.5%	1.6%	-69.9 pp
2026-08-06T21:36:35.612Z	69.5%	1.0%	-68.5 pp
2026-08-06T21:38:35.386Z	62.5%	0.2%	-62.3 pp
2026-08-06T21:40:44.916Z	34.5%	0.2%	-34.3 pp
2026-08-06T21:46:41.644Z	73.5%	0.1%	-73.4 pp
2026-08-06T21:48:37.077Z	52.0%	0.1%	-51.9 pp
2026-08-06T21:50:43.026Z	52.0%	0.0%	-52.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:59:09.822Z	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5 pp
2026-08-06T21:59:38.034Z	59.5%	0.0%	-59.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 12.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 34.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 37.5%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 34.5%. Marx fair UP is 12.5%.