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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +34.55 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 5PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY12.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+34.55 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-11.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 58.5%Marx Fair UP 5.8%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 09:00 PMAug 06, 09:02 PMAug 06, 09:04 PMAug 06, 09:05 PMAug 06, 09:07 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T21:00:51.930Z50.5%5.8%-44.7 pp
2026-08-06T21:02:26.890Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:02:39.385Z50.5%7.4%-43.1 pp
2026-08-06T21:02:40.361Z50.5%7.4%-43.1 pp
2026-08-06T21:04:09.841Z58.5%69.5%+11.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:04:21.383Z69.5%69.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:04:33.454Z69.5%7.9%-61.6 pp
2026-08-06T21:05:11.267Z58.5%7.9%-50.6 pp
2026-08-06T21:06:10.976Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:06:22.976Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:06:36.183Z58.5%5.8%-52.7 pp
2026-08-06T21:07:14.434Z58.5%5.8%-52.7 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 12.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 34.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 37.5%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 34.5%. Marx fair UP is 12.5%.

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +34.55 pp Edge | AntiPredict