VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +7.23 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 06, 06:01 PMAug 06, 06:17 PMAug 06, 06:32 PMAug 06, 06:48 PMAug 06, 07:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T18:45:18.184Z | 1.6% | 1.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:46:10.022Z | 1.6% | 0.0% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:46:40.144Z | 1.6% | 0.0% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:47:10.235Z | 1.6% | 0.0% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:48:10.736Z | 1.6% | 1.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:48:23.208Z | 1.6% | 1.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:48:32.398Z | 1.6% | 0.0% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:49:09.876Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:11.189Z | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:21.584Z | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:43.610Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:50:44.658Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:51:10.620Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:52:10.104Z | 0.2% | 0.9% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:52:27.876Z | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:52:41.868Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:54:17.396Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:54:18.630Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:54:36.452Z | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:55:10.760Z | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:56:10.477Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:56:25.820Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:56:47.811Z | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:57:11.081Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:59:00.452Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T18:59:25.913Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:00:59.657Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:02:45.421Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:04:11.153Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T19:04:28.803Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 37.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 53.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 53.3%, gross edge 9.8%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.2%. Marx fair UP is 37.2%.