Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.49 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 1PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.0%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.49 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-12.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%13%25%38%50%
Aug 06, 05:36 PMAug 06, 05:43 PMAug 06, 05:50 PMAug 06, 05:57 PMAug 06, 06:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T17:36:37.586Z28.5%21.7%-6.8 pp
2026-08-06T17:59:10.148Z0.4%0.0%-0.3 pp
2026-08-06T17:59:51.391Z0.4%0.0%-0.3 pp
2026-08-06T18:04:18.864Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 59.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 7.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.5%. Marx fair UP is 59.7%.