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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.49 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 1PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.0%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.7%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.49 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-12.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 57.5%Marx Fair UP 57.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 06, 05:00 PMAug 06, 05:02 PMAug 06, 05:04 PMAug 06, 05:06 PMAug 06, 05:08 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T17:00:17.035Z44.5%43.0%-1.5 pp
2026-08-06T17:01:10.346Z57.5%44.5%-13.0 pp
2026-08-06T17:01:20.034Z44.5%44.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T17:02:42.691Z44.5%58.0%+13.5 pp
2026-08-06T17:04:22.092Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T17:04:36.421Z57.5%61.3%+3.8 pp
2026-08-06T17:05:09.962Z57.5%61.3%+3.8 pp
2026-08-06T17:06:11.676Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T17:06:23.106Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T17:06:45.476Z57.5%61.8%+4.3 pp
2026-08-06T17:06:46.479Z57.5%61.8%+4.3 pp
2026-08-06T17:07:09.836Z57.5%61.8%+4.3 pp
2026-08-06T17:08:10.097Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T17:08:26.195Z57.5%57.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 59.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 7.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.5%. Marx fair UP is 59.7%.

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.49 pp Edge | AntiPredict