Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +6.00 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+6.00 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 01:02 AMAug 07, 01:17 AMAug 07, 01:33 AMAug 07, 01:48 AMAug 07, 02:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T01:02:42.322Z52.0%15.4%-36.6 pp
2026-08-07T01:08:40.688Z68.5%16.5%-52.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:16:45.696Z55.5%9.0%-46.5 pp
2026-08-07T01:22:36.562Z57.5%6.9%-50.6 pp
2026-08-07T01:24:40.182Z57.5%6.5%-51.0 pp
2026-08-07T01:40:59.837Z54.5%5.3%-49.2 pp
2026-08-07T01:45:26.889Z80.5%2.1%-78.4 pp
2026-08-07T01:51:41.273Z87.5%4.2%-83.3 pp
2026-08-07T01:59:15.919Z100.0%99.1%-0.9 pp
2026-08-07T01:59:28.609Z99.1%99.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T02:03:39.499Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 40.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.0%. Marx fair UP is 40.8%.