VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +64.86 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 05, 09:01 PMAug 05, 09:16 PMAug 05, 09:32 PMAug 05, 09:48 PMAug 05, 10:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T21:48:20.198Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:48:36.239Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:49:09.633Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:50:11.561Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:50:21.627Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:50:37.406Z | 3.1% | 100.0% | +96.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:51:09.620Z | 3.1% | 100.0% | +96.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:52:09.525Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:52:27.021Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:52:34.574Z | 3.1% | 100.0% | +96.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:53:09.315Z | 3.1% | 100.0% | +96.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:54:23.208Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:54:33.921Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:54:54.624Z | 3.1% | 100.0% | +96.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:54:59.009Z | 3.1% | 100.0% | +96.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:55:09.672Z | 3.1% | 100.0% | +96.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:56:09.628Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:56:20.932Z | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:57:26.746Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:57:40.103Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:58:09.951Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:59:13.267Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:59:26.863Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T21:59:32.462Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:00:09.327Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:01:09.229Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:01:18.523Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:02:09.669Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:03:10.669Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:04:09.297Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 45.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 33.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 64.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 33.0%, gross edge 66.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 64.9%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.