Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +64.86 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY45.5%33.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+64.86 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN2.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 1.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 09:03 PMAug 05, 09:17 PMAug 05, 09:31 PMAug 05, 09:45 PMAug 05, 09:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T21:03:09.931Z49.5%99.7%+50.2 pp
2026-08-05T21:05:42.558Z49.5%99.9%+50.4 pp
2026-08-05T21:09:37.402Z45.5%99.9%+54.4 pp
2026-08-05T21:16:40.783Z40.5%100.0%+59.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:20:42.773Z34.5%100.0%+65.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:32:45.313Z10.5%100.0%+89.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:37:35.000Z12.5%100.0%+87.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:59:13.267Z1.5%100.0%+98.5 pp
2026-08-05T21:59:32.462Z1.5%100.0%+98.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 45.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 33.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 64.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 33.0%, gross edge 66.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 64.9%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.