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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +27.55 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY80.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+27.55 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 54.5%Marx Fair UP 54.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 11:03 AMAug 05, 11:17 AMAug 05, 11:31 AMAug 05, 11:45 AMAug 05, 11:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T11:03:29.509Z50.5%85.6%+35.1 pp
2026-08-05T11:12:37.949Z58.5%86.2%+27.7 pp
2026-08-05T11:15:34.431Z60.5%87.4%+26.9 pp
2026-08-05T11:17:40.206Z60.5%85.7%+25.2 pp
2026-08-05T11:32:50.935Z61.5%90.0%+28.5 pp
2026-08-05T11:34:59.516Z64.5%96.8%+32.3 pp
2026-08-05T11:37:11.358Z82.5%96.0%+13.5 pp
2026-08-05T11:41:55.556Z77.5%97.6%+20.1 pp
2026-08-05T11:43:56.600Z82.5%98.5%+16.0 pp
2026-08-05T11:47:33.887Z70.5%95.9%+25.4 pp
2026-08-05T11:53:58.813Z80.5%99.9%+19.4 pp
2026-08-05T11:55:58.317Z54.5%99.9%+45.4 pp
2026-08-05T11:56:21.685Z54.5%99.9%+45.4 pp
2026-08-05T11:59:41.626Z54.5%54.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 80.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 27.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 29.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.6%. Marx fair UP is 80.9%.