VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +27.55 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 7AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 61.5%Marx Fair UP 91.4%
Aug 05, 11:00 AMAug 05, 11:08 AMAug 05, 11:16 AMAug 05, 11:23 AMAug 05, 11:31 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T11:05:13.469Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:05:20.444Z | 58.5% | 60.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:05:39.044Z | 58.5% | 85.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:06:06.926Z | 58.5% | 85.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:07:24.245Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:09:32.375Z | 58.5% | 87.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:09:47.441Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:11:17.218Z | 64.5% | 86.2% | +21.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:12:37.949Z | 58.5% | 86.2% | +27.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:14:10.563Z | 58.5% | 58.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:14:50.844Z | 64.5% | 64.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:10.081Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:21.774Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:15:34.431Z | 60.5% | 87.4% | +26.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:16:06.987Z | 60.5% | 87.4% | +26.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:17:02.691Z | 50.5% | 60.5% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:17:12.601Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:17:40.206Z | 60.5% | 85.7% | +25.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:19:49.498Z | 60.5% | 60.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:20:24.467Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:20:45.136Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:21:44.557Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:22:43.701Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:23:41.559Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:25:37.312Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:25:59.800Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:26:59.641Z | 61.5% | 63.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:30:36.082Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:30:57.221Z | 61.5% | 91.4% | +29.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T11:31:21.764Z | 61.5% | 91.4% | +29.9 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 80.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 27.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 29.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.6%. Marx fair UP is 80.9%.