VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 4AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 05, 08:01 AMAug 05, 08:16 AMAug 05, 08:32 AMAug 05, 08:48 AMAug 05, 09:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T08:46:10.520Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:46:22.449Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:47:09.199Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:48:01.076Z | 29.5% | 50.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:48:16.265Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:48:22.377Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:49:01.166Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:50:11.156Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:50:11.410Z | 29.5% | 29.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:50:24.678Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:51:15.609Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:52:09.720Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:53:34.914Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:54:13.781Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:56:40.169Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:58:01.050Z | 31.5% | 34.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:58:15.851Z | 34.5% | 34.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:58:26.787Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:58:27.422Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:59:01.138Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:00:04.628Z | 31.5% | 50.5% | +19.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:00:07.964Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:00:16.165Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:00:28.814Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:01:05.718Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:02:05.409Z | 0.5% | 31.5% | +31.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:02:07.167Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:02:16.408Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:03:04.845Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T09:04:03.158Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 34.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.