VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 4AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 31.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 08:05 AMAug 05, 08:18 AMAug 05, 08:32 AMAug 05, 08:45 AMAug 05, 08:59 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T08:05:20.489Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:07:19.696Z | 52.5% | 99.9% | +47.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:12:26.153Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:16:32.011Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:18:28.764Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:22:26.548Z | 59.5% | 100.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:24:24.886Z | 59.5% | 100.0% | +40.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:26:27.481Z | 67.5% | 100.0% | +32.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:28:25.401Z | 67.5% | 100.0% | +32.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:32:24.625Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:34:23.453Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:36:28.610Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:38:30.278Z | 80.5% | 100.0% | +19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:42:23.896Z | 80.5% | 100.0% | +19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:46:22.449Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:50:24.678Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:56:40.169Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:58:26.787Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:58:27.422Z | 34.5% | 100.0% | +65.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T08:59:01.138Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 34.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.