VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.18 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Aug 05, 12:00 AMAug 05, 12:15 AMAug 05, 12:31 AMAug 05, 12:46 AMAug 05, 01:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T00:45:20.208Z | 36.5% | 31.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:45:30.372Z | 36.5% | 100.0% | +63.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:46:04.540Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:47:19.006Z | 36.5% | 31.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:47:28.866Z | 36.5% | 100.0% | +63.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:49:19.722Z | 16.5% | 11.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:49:30.245Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:50:02.429Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:51:56.691Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:52:05.990Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:53:04.523Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:53:14.657Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:54:04.502Z | 4.5% | 100.0% | +95.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:54:27.981Z | 4.5% | 100.0% | +95.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:55:04.427Z | 4.5% | 100.0% | +95.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:56:04.523Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:56:14.648Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:56:29.240Z | 4.5% | 100.0% | +95.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:57:04.489Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:58:04.486Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:58:19.515Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:58:32.964Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:58:33.632Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:59:04.670Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:00:05.535Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:00:16.700Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:00:37.271Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:01:04.531Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:02:04.386Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:02:20.346Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.5%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.