VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.18 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Aug 05, 12:01 AMAug 05, 12:16 AMAug 05, 12:31 AMAug 05, 12:47 AMAug 05, 01:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T00:01:24.490Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:03:26.234Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:06:13.725Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:12:32.238Z | 38.5% | 100.0% | +61.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:14:29.514Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:18:32.329Z | 29.5% | 100.0% | +70.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:26:31.189Z | 25.5% | 100.0% | +74.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:28:33.546Z | 22.5% | 100.0% | +77.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:32:32.257Z | 24.5% | 100.0% | +75.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:34:27.749Z | 24.5% | 100.0% | +75.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:39:25.013Z | 76.5% | 100.0% | +23.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:41:32.424Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:45:30.372Z | 36.5% | 100.0% | +63.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:47:28.866Z | 36.5% | 100.0% | +63.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:49:30.245Z | 16.5% | 100.0% | +83.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:58:33.632Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T00:59:04.670Z | 0.9% | 100.0% | +99.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T01:02:20.346Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 48.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.5%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.