VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.62 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 6PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 04, 10:00 PMAug 04, 10:15 PMAug 04, 10:31 PMAug 04, 10:47 PMAug 04, 11:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T22:49:19.890Z | 71.5% | 71.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:49:31.932Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:49:54.826Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:50:11.506Z | 55.5% | 100.0% | +44.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:51:28.193Z | 55.5% | 55.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:52:04.799Z | 55.5% | 55.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:53:04.462Z | 55.5% | 55.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:53:10.211Z | 55.5% | 55.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:04.677Z | 58.5% | 58.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:21.101Z | 58.5% | 58.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:28.922Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:55:04.456Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:04.504Z | 84.5% | 58.6% | -25.9 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:20.123Z | 58.5% | 58.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:32.214Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:56:32.701Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:57:04.569Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:58:04.595Z | 84.5% | 84.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:58:19.643Z | 84.5% | 84.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:58:29.939Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:59:04.487Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:59:40.665Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:08.249Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:12.910Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:21.227Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:00:31.543Z | 84.5% | 100.0% | +15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:01:42.387Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:02:04.412Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:02:28.368Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-04T23:03:04.457Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 46.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.6%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.