VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.62 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 6PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 04, 10:00 PMAug 04, 10:15 PMAug 04, 10:30 PMAug 04, 10:44 PMAug 04, 10:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T22:00:33.293Z | 52.0% | 99.9% | +47.9 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:02:28.577Z | 52.0% | 99.9% | +47.9 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:04:26.104Z | 43.5% | 99.9% | +56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:06:29.474Z | 60.5% | 100.0% | +39.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:12:29.106Z | 54.5% | 100.0% | +45.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:16:29.858Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:21:54.886Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:26:30.817Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:28:29.928Z | 52.5% | 100.0% | +47.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:30:31.430Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:34:35.016Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:41:29.151Z | 79.5% | 100.0% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:43:29.079Z | 75.5% | 100.0% | +24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:47:29.309Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:49:31.932Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:28.922Z | 58.5% | 100.0% | +41.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:59:04.487Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-04T22:59:40.665Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.0%, gross edge 46.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.6%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.