VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.99 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 1AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.4%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 01, 05:00 AMAug 01, 05:15 AMAug 01, 05:31 AMAug 01, 05:47 AMAug 01, 06:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T05:32:14.948Z | 28.5% | 0.0% | -28.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:33:26.931Z | 42.5% | 42.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:33:29.996Z | 42.5% | 42.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:34:44.880Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:38:12.967Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:41:13.911Z | 30.5% | 0.0% | -30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:41:26.354Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:41:29.401Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:43:33.735Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:43:35.088Z | 9.5% | 0.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:46:10.124Z | 9.5% | 9.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:47:17.303Z | 9.5% | 9.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:47:19.958Z | 9.5% | 9.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:48:23.784Z | 1.3% | 0.0% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:49:22.203Z | 1.3% | 0.0% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:50:53.911Z | 1.3% | 0.0% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:51:38.033Z | 2.5% | 2.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:52:26.123Z | 2.5% | 2.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:54:26.499Z | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:55:31.456Z | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:55:31.521Z | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:56:18.835Z | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:56:25.590Z | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:58:01.302Z | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T05:58:44.115Z | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:00:09.807Z | 0.4% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:00:30.405Z | 0.4% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:00:57.871Z | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:01:11.125Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T06:02:39.593Z | 0.4% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.8%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.