Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.99 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 1AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.0%52.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.99 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN3.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.4%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 01, 05:01 AMAug 01, 05:15 AMAug 01, 05:29 AMAug 01, 05:44 AMAug 01, 05:58 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-01T05:01:13.928Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-08-01T05:03:57.851Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
2026-08-01T05:56:18.835Z0.4%0.0%-0.4 pp
2026-08-01T05:58:44.115Z0.4%0.0%-0.3 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.8%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.0%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.