VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +11.79 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY35.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+11.79 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Aug 01, 01:03 PMAug 01, 01:17 PMAug 01, 01:32 PMAug 01, 01:47 PMAug 01, 02:02 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-01T13:03:11.324Z	49.5%	16.1%	-33.4 pp
2026-08-01T13:18:28.536Z	45.5%	10.9%	-34.6 pp
2026-08-01T13:32:47.668Z	25.5%	6.3%	-19.2 pp
2026-08-01T13:57:56.611Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T13:59:34.652Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-01T14:02:07.996Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 35.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 16.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.0%. Marx fair UP is 32.8%.