VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +11.79 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 9AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 35.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 16.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.0%. Marx fair UP is 32.8%.