VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.45 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 31, 12:00 AMJul 31, 12:16 AMJul 31, 12:32 AMJul 31, 12:47 AMJul 31, 01:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T00:43:23.398Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:44:34.080Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:44:56.478Z | 62.5% | 100.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:46:24.581Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:46:38.530Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:46:59.323Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:47:23.098Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:48:23.499Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:48:36.590Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:49:03.200Z | 51.5% | 100.0% | +48.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:51:28.904Z | 37.5% | 10.5% | -27.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:52:00.259Z | 37.5% | 10.5% | -27.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:52:32.944Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:52:45.304Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:53:25.682Z | 10.5% | 10.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:54:14.939Z | 10.5% | 100.0% | +89.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:54:37.533Z | 10.5% | 100.0% | +89.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:55:24.771Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:55:52.441Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:56:23.042Z | 11.5% | 37.5% | +26.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:57:07.285Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:57:24.397Z | 11.5% | 100.0% | +88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:58:23.357Z | 0.1% | 11.5% | +11.4 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:58:32.029Z | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T00:59:06.087Z | 11.5% | 100.0% | +88.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:01:25.245Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:02:25.385Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:03:08.475Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:03:23.808Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T01:03:37.674Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.3%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.4%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.