Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.45 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.45 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 11.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 31, 12:02 AMJul 31, 12:16 AMJul 31, 12:30 AMJul 31, 12:44 AMJul 31, 12:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T00:02:20.898Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:05:28.705Z56.5%100.0%+43.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:14:07.054Z52.5%100.0%+47.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:17:07.877Z52.5%100.0%+47.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:25:40.894Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:30:06.066Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:42:56.937Z62.5%100.0%+37.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:44:56.478Z62.5%100.0%+37.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:46:59.323Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:49:03.200Z51.5%100.0%+48.5 pp
2026-07-31T00:58:23.357Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-07-31T00:59:06.087Z11.5%100.0%+88.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.3%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.4%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.