Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.23 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.23 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-15.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.7%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 07:01 PMJul 30, 07:15 PMJul 30, 07:30 PMJul 30, 07:45 PMJul 30, 07:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T19:01:03.899Z49.0%100.0%+51.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:32:00.879Z93.5%100.0%+6.5 pp
2026-07-30T19:59:23.941Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T19:59:59.950Z99.7%100.0%+0.3 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.5%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.