VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.23 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.7%Marx Fair UP 99.7%
Jul 30, 07:00 PMJul 30, 07:16 PMJul 30, 07:32 PMJul 30, 07:48 PMJul 30, 08:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T19:45:22.813Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:45:51.068Z | 98.1% | 98.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:46:22.917Z | 98.1% | 98.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:46:59.612Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:47:24.993Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:48:28.955Z | 98.1% | 98.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:48:54.601Z | 98.1% | 98.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:49:24.277Z | 98.1% | 98.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:50:33.912Z | 96.0% | 100.0% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:50:35.526Z | 98.1% | 100.0% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:52:00.337Z | 96.0% | 95.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:52:23.553Z | 96.0% | 95.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:53:26.323Z | 96.0% | 100.0% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:54:27.363Z | 96.0% | 100.0% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:54:28.399Z | 96.0% | 100.0% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:55:28.621Z | 96.0% | 95.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:55:46.239Z | 96.0% | 95.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:56:28.392Z | 99.5% | 95.9% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:57:18.624Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:57:52.492Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:58:24.465Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:58:43.318Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:59:23.941Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T19:59:59.950Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T20:01:23.556Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T20:01:37.569Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T20:02:22.931Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T20:03:23.136Z | 100.0% | 99.7% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T20:04:37.671Z | 100.0% | 99.7% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T20:04:54.004Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.5%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.