VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.49 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 30, 02:00 PMJul 30, 02:16 PMJul 30, 02:32 PMJul 30, 02:48 PMJul 30, 03:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T14:46:14.430Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:46:33.280Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:46:57.349Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:48:00.657Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:48:10.454Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:48:37.292Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:48:59.125Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:50:10.158Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:50:33.799Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:51:52.584Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:52:06.524Z | 1.1% | 100.0% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:52:36.009Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:53:04.189Z | 1.1% | 100.0% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:53:40.459Z | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:54:00.943Z | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:54:40.480Z | 1.1% | 100.0% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:55:01.835Z | 1.1% | 100.0% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:56:03.588Z | 0.3% | 1.1% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:56:32.660Z | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:57:37.770Z | 1.1% | 100.0% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:58:10.261Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:59:04.536Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:59:26.413Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T14:59:57.261Z | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:01:03.137Z | 0.3% | 100.0% | +99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:01:09.187Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:02:03.102Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:02:58.590Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:03:19.623Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T15:04:38.337Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 98.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.4%, gross edge 47.8%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.1%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.