Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +44.49 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 10AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY98.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+44.49 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 02:03 PMJul 30, 02:18 PMJul 30, 02:33 PMJul 30, 02:48 PMJul 30, 03:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T14:03:36.681Z43.5%100.0%+56.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:14:47.497Z18.5%100.0%+81.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:27:39.002Z6.5%100.0%+93.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:29:41.752Z17.5%100.0%+82.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:31:37.031Z15.5%100.0%+84.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:33:35.498Z15.5%100.0%+84.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:44:34.420Z9.5%100.0%+90.5 pp
2026-07-30T14:59:26.413Z0.3%0.2%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T14:59:57.261Z0.3%0.2%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T15:03:19.623Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 98.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 4.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.4%, gross edge 47.8%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.1%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.