VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.03 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 73.5%Marx Fair UP 73.5%
Jul 30, 07:00 AMJul 30, 07:16 AMJul 30, 07:32 AMJul 30, 07:48 AMJul 30, 08:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T07:42:44.036Z | 61.5% | 33.5% | -28.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:42:57.014Z | 33.5% | 33.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:43:46.774Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:43:46.965Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:44:23.605Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:44:43.894Z | 61.5% | 0.0% | -61.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:45:46.741Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:46:03.357Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:47:29.500Z | 68.5% | 0.0% | -68.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:49:02.983Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:49:52.314Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:51:57.393Z | 39.5% | 51.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:52:16.839Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:52:45.850Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:52:45.985Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:53:53.544Z | 35.5% | 39.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:55:37.112Z | 39.5% | 0.0% | -39.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:57:04.650Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:57:25.102Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:57:42.763Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:58:11.350Z | 35.5% | 0.0% | -35.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:58:43.071Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T07:59:48.940Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:00:07.019Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:00:19.165Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:00:43.548Z | 73.5% | 0.0% | -73.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:01:46.864Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:02:23.929Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:02:42.935Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T08:04:34.900Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 1.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 49.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.4%, gross edge 52.1%, slippage 2.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.9%.