Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.03 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 3AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%49.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY1.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.03 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 73.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 07:01 AMJul 30, 07:16 AMJul 30, 07:30 AMJul 30, 07:45 AMJul 30, 07:59 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T07:01:41.965Z52.0%0.4%-51.6 pp
2026-07-30T07:15:03.416Z66.5%0.4%-66.1 pp
2026-07-30T07:24:48.487Z79.0%0.2%-78.8 pp
2026-07-30T07:30:25.252Z74.5%0.1%-74.4 pp
2026-07-30T07:33:15.252Z69.0%0.0%-69.0 pp
2026-07-30T07:35:31.873Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-30T07:44:23.605Z61.5%0.0%-61.5 pp
2026-07-30T07:47:29.500Z68.5%0.0%-68.5 pp
2026-07-30T07:55:37.112Z39.5%0.0%-39.5 pp
2026-07-30T07:58:11.350Z35.5%0.0%-35.5 pp
2026-07-30T07:59:48.940Z73.5%0.0%-73.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 1.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 49.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 49.4%, gross edge 52.1%, slippage 2.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.9%.