Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.17 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 9PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY41.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.17 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 10.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 31, 01:59 AMJul 31, 01:59 AMJul 31, 02:00 AMJul 31, 02:01 AMJul 31, 02:01 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-31T01:59:24.615Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-07-31T01:59:26.776Z1.5%100.0%+98.5 pp
2026-07-31T02:01:41.685Z0.1%10.0%+10.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 41.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 7.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.2%. Marx fair UP is 41.6%.