VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +9.16 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 8PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 30, 12:00 AMJul 30, 12:16 AMJul 30, 12:32 AMJul 30, 12:47 AMJul 30, 01:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T00:44:51.955Z | 9.5% | 9.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:45:36.418Z | 9.5% | 2.3% | -7.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:46:09.490Z | 1.4% | 2.3% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:46:42.751Z | 0.9% | 1.4% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:47:03.100Z | 1.4% | 1.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:47:26.774Z | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:47:43.554Z | 0.9% | 9.5% | +8.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:47:47.374Z | 9.5% | 9.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:47:56.589Z | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:48:12.285Z | 0.9% | 1.2% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:51:16.689Z | 0.4% | 2.6% | +2.3 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:51:46.081Z | 1.4% | 2.6% | +1.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:52:28.255Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:52:46.958Z | 0.1% | 0.4% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:54:27.675Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:54:44.442Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:55:42.782Z | 0.1% | 0.4% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:55:57.231Z | 0.4% | 0.4% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:21.624Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:45.253Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:07.696Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:24.770Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:26.245Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:59:47.955Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:00:43.667Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:01:09.769Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:01:17.208Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:01:43.129Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:02:45.565Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T01:03:13.988Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 61.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 9.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.8%, gross edge 12.2%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.2%. Marx fair UP is 61.2%.