Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +9.16 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 8PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY48.0%49.8% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY61.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+9.16 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN7.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 30, 12:01 AMJul 30, 12:16 AMJul 30, 12:32 AMJul 30, 12:47 AMJul 30, 01:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T00:01:22.042Z46.5%64.5%+18.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:03:11.082Z46.5%65.7%+19.2 pp
2026-07-30T00:24:32.228Z53.5%73.7%+20.2 pp
2026-07-30T00:27:19.567Z53.5%68.8%+15.3 pp
2026-07-30T00:32:18.479Z51.5%61.5%+10.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:34:43.788Z47.5%33.7%-13.8 pp
2026-07-30T00:41:13.246Z9.5%15.7%+6.2 pp
2026-07-30T00:59:26.245Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T00:59:47.955Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-30T01:03:13.988Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 61.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 48.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.8¢ with a net modeled edge of 9.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 3.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.8%, gross edge 12.2%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 9.2%. Marx fair UP is 61.2%.