Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +8.62 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY62.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+8.62 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-16.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 96.5%Marx Fair UP 55.9%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 11:03 PMJul 29, 11:17 PMJul 29, 11:31 PMJul 29, 11:45 PMJul 29, 11:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T23:03:15.225Z49.5%40.4%-9.1 pp
2026-07-29T23:14:21.897Z43.5%32.3%-11.2 pp
2026-07-29T23:18:12.217Z43.5%48.8%+5.3 pp
2026-07-29T23:24:18.110Z75.5%55.4%-20.1 pp
2026-07-29T23:38:08.873Z65.5%44.5%-21.0 pp
2026-07-29T23:49:26.591Z75.5%67.7%-7.8 pp
2026-07-29T23:52:51.378Z79.5%49.4%-30.1 pp
2026-07-29T23:57:17.162Z90.5%60.2%-30.3 pp
2026-07-29T23:59:14.331Z91.5%55.9%-35.6 pp
2026-07-29T23:59:42.600Z96.5%55.9%-40.6 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 62.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.7%, gross edge 11.5%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.6%. Marx fair UP is 62.5%.