VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +8.62 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 96.5%Marx Fair UP 96.5%
Jul 29, 11:00 PMJul 29, 11:16 PMJul 29, 11:31 PMJul 29, 11:47 PMJul 30, 12:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T23:45:21.014Z | 54.5% | 55.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:46:03.230Z | 75.5% | 55.5% | -20.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:46:44.608Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:46:53.714Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:47:25.691Z | 75.5% | 72.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:47:42.897Z | 75.5% | 72.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:48:47.275Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:48:58.105Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:49:26.591Z | 75.5% | 67.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:49:55.258Z | 75.5% | 67.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:51:02.114Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:51:25.993Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:51:47.179Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:52:51.212Z | 79.5% | 49.4% | -30.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:52:51.378Z | 79.5% | 49.4% | -30.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:53:42.445Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:54:30.719Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:54:42.264Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:55:25.660Z | 79.5% | 50.4% | -29.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:55:45.861Z | 91.5% | 50.4% | -41.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:56:59.582Z | 90.5% | 90.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:57:17.162Z | 90.5% | 60.2% | -30.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:58:57.864Z | 91.5% | 91.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:59:14.331Z | 91.5% | 55.9% | -35.6 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:59:42.600Z | 96.5% | 55.9% | -40.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:00:55.065Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:01:23.649Z | 96.5% | 72.3% | -24.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:01:44.272Z | 96.5% | 72.3% | -24.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:02:42.394Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:02:49.154Z | 96.5% | 96.5% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 62.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.7%, gross edge 11.5%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.6%. Marx fair UP is 62.5%.