Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +25.95 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY79.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+25.95 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-12.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 09:01 PMJul 29, 09:15 PMJul 29, 09:30 PMJul 29, 09:45 PMJul 29, 09:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T21:01:15.332Z52.5%2.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-29T21:03:15.480Z52.5%1.4%-51.1 pp
2026-07-29T21:29:36.051Z44.5%0.8%-43.7 pp
2026-07-29T21:32:16.567Z59.5%0.6%-58.9 pp
2026-07-29T21:34:42.291Z59.5%1.0%-58.5 pp
2026-07-29T21:46:04.861Z78.5%0.0%-78.5 pp
2026-07-29T21:48:32.771Z70.5%0.0%-70.5 pp
2026-07-29T21:58:32.210Z97.5%0.0%-97.5 pp
2026-07-29T21:59:42.418Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 79.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 26.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.7%, gross edge 28.9%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.0%. Marx fair UP is 79.9%.