VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +5.83 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 30, 12:01 PMJul 30, 12:16 PMJul 30, 12:31 PMJul 30, 12:46 PMJul 30, 01:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T12:01:28.732Z | 50.5% | 99.6% | +49.1 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:03:34.085Z | 50.5% | 99.7% | +49.2 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:18:51.727Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:26:31.909Z | 71.5% | 100.0% | +28.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:32:32.517Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:37:17.079Z | 68.5% | 100.0% | +31.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:40:39.922Z | 80.5% | 100.0% | +19.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:46:53.486Z | 67.5% | 100.0% | +32.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:59:32.601Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-07-30T12:59:58.241Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-30T13:01:28.758Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 59.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.8%. Marx fair UP is 59.1%.