VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +35.86 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.8%Marx Fair UP 99.8%
Jul 29, 05:02 AMJul 29, 05:16 AMJul 29, 05:31 AMJul 29, 05:45 AMJul 29, 05:59 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T05:02:11.324Z | 50.5% | 99.7% | +49.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:10:04.983Z | 54.5% | 99.9% | +45.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:16:10.145Z | 60.5% | 99.9% | +39.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:22:11.628Z | 37.5% | 99.8% | +62.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:24:09.933Z | 37.5% | 100.0% | +62.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:28:08.334Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:30:06.766Z | 53.5% | 100.0% | +46.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:32:06.994Z | 46.5% | 100.0% | +53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:34:07.372Z | 46.5% | 100.0% | +53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:36:11.775Z | 46.5% | 100.0% | +53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:38:07.097Z | 46.5% | 100.0% | +53.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:42:12.232Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:46:07.204Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:50:05.053Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:56:40.684Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:59:54.350Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 90.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 35.4%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 32.2%. Marx fair UP is 86.4%.