VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +35.86 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 1AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 29, 05:00 AMJul 29, 05:15 AMJul 29, 05:31 AMJul 29, 05:46 AMJul 29, 06:02 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T05:42:50.922Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:44:07.928Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:44:42.614Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:45:40.410Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:45:44.862Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:46:07.204Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:46:41.210Z | 86.5% | 100.0% | +13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:47:45.380Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:48:08.628Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:49:44.678Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:50:05.053Z | 74.5% | 100.0% | +25.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:50:59.375Z | 86.5% | 100.0% | +13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:51:39.908Z | 95.5% | 86.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:51:49.075Z | 86.5% | 86.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:52:06.613Z | 86.5% | 100.0% | +13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:53:43.794Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:53:48.392Z | 95.5% | 95.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:54:06.771Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:54:40.646Z | 95.5% | 100.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:55:40.023Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:55:50.669Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:56:06.977Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:56:40.684Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:57:45.924Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:58:09.583Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T05:59:54.350Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:00:24.579Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:00:42.062Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:01:39.107Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T06:02:06.462Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 90.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 35.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.9%, gross edge 35.4%, slippage 0.9%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 32.2%. Marx fair UP is 86.4%.