Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +31.22 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY84.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+31.22 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-13.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 06:00 AMJul 29, 06:14 AMJul 29, 06:28 AMJul 29, 06:42 AMJul 29, 06:57 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T06:00:24.524Z46.5%98.4%+51.9 pp
2026-07-29T06:02:07.627Z48.5%98.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:06:11.239Z48.5%98.9%+50.4 pp
2026-07-29T06:08:10.037Z48.5%99.2%+50.7 pp
2026-07-29T06:14:09.739Z54.5%99.6%+45.1 pp
2026-07-29T06:18:10.129Z58.5%99.8%+41.3 pp
2026-07-29T06:20:10.948Z58.5%99.9%+41.4 pp
2026-07-29T06:24:10.770Z70.5%100.0%+29.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:26:12.486Z70.5%100.0%+29.5 pp
2026-07-29T06:54:40.293Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T06:57:06.819Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 84.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 37.4%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 34.4%. Marx fair UP is 87.4%.