VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +31.22 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 2AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 84.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 31.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 37.4%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 34.4%. Marx fair UP is 87.4%.