VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +48.57 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 90.0%
Jul 29, 02:00 AMJul 29, 02:15 AMJul 29, 02:31 AMJul 29, 02:47 AMJul 29, 03:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T02:42:58.649Z | 98.6% | 99.1% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:43:58.110Z | 99.1% | 99.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:44:43.365Z | 99.1% | 99.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:45:18.951Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:48:38.909Z | 99.2% | 99.1% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:48:48.215Z | 99.1% | 99.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:48:56.827Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:49:41.949Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:50:40.178Z | 99.2% | 99.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:50:55.847Z | 99.2% | 99.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:50:58.650Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:51:38.846Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:52:40.634Z | 99.2% | 99.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:52:46.567Z | 99.2% | 99.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:52:57.394Z | 99.2% | 100.0% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:53:41.438Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:54:38.971Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:54:48.076Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:54:55.204Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:55:41.921Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:56:39.120Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:59:22.066Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T02:59:38.791Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:00:42.581Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:00:56.111Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:01:00.324Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:01:38.752Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:02:44.889Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:02:58.397Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T03:03:01.432Z | 100.0% | 90.0% | -10.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 50.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.6%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.