Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +48.57 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%49.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+48.57 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN93.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 90.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 29, 02:04 AMJul 29, 02:19 AMJul 29, 02:33 AMJul 29, 02:48 AMJul 29, 03:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T02:04:43.238Z55.5%99.5%+44.0 pp
2026-07-29T02:06:51.165Z58.5%99.8%+41.3 pp
2026-07-29T02:08:51.867Z58.5%99.9%+41.4 pp
2026-07-29T02:15:22.024Z69.5%100.0%+30.5 pp
2026-07-29T02:18:55.380Z68.5%99.9%+31.4 pp
2026-07-29T02:22:52.356Z68.5%100.0%+31.5 pp
2026-07-29T02:24:52.408Z74.5%100.0%+25.5 pp
2026-07-29T02:54:55.204Z99.3%100.0%+0.7 pp
2026-07-29T02:59:38.791Z99.6%90.0%-9.6 pp
2026-07-29T03:03:01.432Z100.0%90.0%-10.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 49.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 48.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 49.0%, gross edge 50.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 48.6%. Marx fair UP is 99.8%.