VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +49.09 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.8%Marx Fair UP 99.8%
Jul 28, 03:00 PMJul 28, 03:15 PMJul 28, 03:31 PMJul 28, 03:46 PMJul 28, 04:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T15:45:19.399Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:45:28.231Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:45:48.649Z | 98.5% | 0.0% | -98.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:47:19.311Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:47:44.087Z | 99.3% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:49:23.161Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:49:44.299Z | 99.3% | 0.0% | -99.3 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:50:15.263Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:15.179Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:23.657Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:51:43.624Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:52:15.141Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:15.248Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:19.558Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:45.545Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:53:46.168Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:54:15.128Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:55:15.171Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:55:19.723Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:55:46.250Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:56:15.347Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:15.065Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:23.332Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:57:46.041Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:58:17.478Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:59:15.284Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:59:23.230Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T15:59:43.553Z | 99.7% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:00:16.056Z | 99.8% | 0.0% | -99.7 pp |
| 2026-07-28T16:01:34.439Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 53.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 48.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.7%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.