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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +49.09 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY53.0%48.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+49.09 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.7%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 28, 03:03 PMJul 28, 03:17 PMJul 28, 03:31 PMJul 28, 03:45 PMJul 28, 03:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T15:03:03.161Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:05:00.368Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:07:00.892Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:11:01.995Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:13:02.015Z41.5%0.0%-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:18:57.421Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:21:00.839Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:23:01.320Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:25:28.069Z84.5%0.0%-84.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:30:03.374Z94.5%0.0%-94.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:36:01.672Z90.5%0.0%-90.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:55:46.250Z99.8%0.0%-99.7 pp
2026-07-28T15:59:15.284Z99.7%0.0%-99.7 pp
2026-07-28T15:59:43.553Z99.7%0.0%-99.7 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 53.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 48.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.7%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.