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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +49.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY61.5%48.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+49.73 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN16.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 28, 12:02 PMJul 28, 12:17 PMJul 28, 12:33 PMJul 28, 12:48 PMJul 28, 01:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T12:02:01.199Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:04:03.507Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:08:10.466Z46.5%0.0%-46.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:12:05.019Z61.5%0.0%-61.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:14:00.907Z61.5%0.0%-61.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:20:04.930Z43.5%0.0%-43.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:22:02.704Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:26:56.966Z47.5%0.0%-47.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:30:59.820Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:33:01.473Z53.5%0.0%-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:36:59.629Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:43:00.394Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:45:16.166Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:47:04.594Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:49:03.945Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:51:13.216Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:55:32.412Z87.5%0.0%-87.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:59:30.931Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:59:55.960Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:04:20.163Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 61.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.