VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +49.73 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 12:00 PMJul 28, 12:16 PMJul 28, 12:32 PMJul 28, 12:48 PMJul 28, 01:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T12:44:48.117Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:45:16.166Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:46:45.774Z | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:47:04.594Z | 36.5% | 0.0% | -36.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:47:33.693Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:48:31.050Z | 87.5% | 42.5% | -45.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:48:37.527Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:49:03.945Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:50:46.827Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:51:13.216Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:37.828Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:45.755Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:58.054Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:52:58.795Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:54:02.802Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:54:42.431Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:55:32.412Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:57:09.958Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:03.474Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:58:04.132Z | 87.5% | 0.0% | -87.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:08.403Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:30.931Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:35.280Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:59:55.960Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:00:31.100Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:32.605Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:01:40.186Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:02:32.327Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:03:30.934Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T13:04:20.163Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 61.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.