VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.2%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 28, 10:02 AMJul 28, 10:18 AMJul 28, 10:33 AMJul 28, 10:49 AMJul 28, 11:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T10:02:55.510Z	55.5%	0.0%	-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:04:56.306Z	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:10:59.806Z	41.5%	0.0%	-41.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:14:57.151Z	40.5%	0.0%	-40.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:22:58.112Z	53.5%	0.0%	-53.5 pp
2026-07-28T10:56:33.479Z	99.9%	0.0%	-99.8 pp
2026-07-28T10:58:59.324Z	99.6%	0.0%	-99.6 pp
2026-07-28T11:04:45.339Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.