VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 10:00 AMJul 28, 10:16 AMJul 28, 10:32 AMJul 28, 10:48 AMJul 28, 11:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T10:41:31.077Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:42:39.297Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:43:56.020Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:30.879Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:34.636Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:58.125Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:46:30.958Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:35.318Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:47:59.657Z | 85.5% | 0.0% | -85.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:49:40.799Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:49:49.653Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:08.949Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:30.924Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:31.019Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:39.964Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:51:56.477Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:54:35.245Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:31.948Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:42.022Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:56:33.479Z | 99.9% | 0.0% | -99.8 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:57:03.029Z | 99.6% | 0.0% | -99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:58:48.454Z | 99.6% | 99.6% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T10:58:59.324Z | 99.6% | 0.0% | -99.6 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:00:31.113Z | 100.0% | 99.8% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:00:37.076Z | 99.9% | 99.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:00:51.504Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:11.517Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:31.110Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:02:36.423Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:04:45.339Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.