VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +57.20 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 04:00 AMJul 28, 04:16 AMJul 28, 04:32 AMJul 28, 04:48 AMJul 28, 05:04 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T04:40:27.731Z | 8.5% | 0.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:42:24.070Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:42:34.885Z | 8.5% | 0.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:44:30.855Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:44:34.788Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:44:37.127Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:45:30.884Z | 6.5% | 0.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:46:34.336Z | 6.5% | 6.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:46:36.702Z | 6.5% | 0.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:50:30.777Z | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:50:39.775Z | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:50:45.369Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:51:30.995Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:52:33.780Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:52:34.503Z | 15.5% | 0.0% | -15.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:52:40.221Z | 11.5% | 0.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:53:48.258Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:53:53.366Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:54:30.831Z | 56.5% | 16.5% | -40.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:54:39.548Z | 16.5% | 16.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:55:01.062Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:55:01.508Z | 16.5% | 0.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:59:31.574Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T04:59:32.060Z | 99.5% | 56.5% | -43.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:00:37.218Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:00:39.441Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:02:38.704Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:03:59.687Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:04:30.832Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T05:04:40.540Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 16.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 40.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.6%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.