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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +57.20 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY16.5%40.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+57.20 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 28, 04:03 AMJul 28, 04:18 AMJul 28, 04:34 AMJul 28, 04:49 AMJul 28, 05:04 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T04:03:37.804Z53.0%0.0%-53.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:05:40.561Z46.0%0.0%-46.0 pp
2026-07-28T04:10:07.870Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:21:37.707Z54.5%0.0%-54.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:31:40.331Z34.5%0.0%-34.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:44:37.127Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:46:36.702Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:50:45.369Z11.5%0.0%-11.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:52:40.221Z11.5%0.0%-11.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:55:01.062Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:55:01.508Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T04:59:32.060Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T05:04:40.540Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 16.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 40.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.6%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.