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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +16.88 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY29.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+16.88 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-11.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 01:01 PMJul 28, 01:17 PMJul 28, 01:32 PMJul 28, 01:47 PMJul 28, 02:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T13:01:57.112Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:05:57.677Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:08:01.783Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:20:00.662Z35.5%0.0%-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:21:56.700Z35.5%0.0%-35.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:26:05.827Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:31:57.503Z18.5%0.0%-18.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:33:58.028Z18.5%0.0%-18.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:36:02.959Z11.5%0.0%-11.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:41:20.167Z8.5%0.0%-8.5 pp
2026-07-28T13:57:31.134Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T13:59:56.897Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T14:03:10.019Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 29.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 19.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.9%. Marx fair UP is 29.9%.