VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +16.88 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 29.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 19.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.9%. Marx fair UP is 29.9%.