Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 1-Hour hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +28.51 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY18.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+28.51 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN87.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 10.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Jul 28, 01:01 AMJul 28, 01:16 AMJul 28, 01:31 AMJul 28, 01:46 AMJul 28, 02:01 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T01:01:49.393Z57.5%0.0%-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:03:50.750Z57.5%0.0%-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:05:51.889Z61.5%0.0%-61.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:07:49.607Z61.5%0.0%-61.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:09:59.930Z22.5%0.0%-22.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:15:54.809Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:17:56.797Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:35:54.159Z27.5%0.0%-27.5 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:30.764Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T01:59:53.653Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T02:01:54.566Z0.1%10.0%+10.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 18.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 30.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.5%. Marx fair UP is 18.2%.