VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +28.51 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 10.0%
Jul 28, 01:00 AMJul 28, 01:15 AMJul 28, 01:31 AMJul 28, 01:46 AMJul 28, 02:01 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T01:45:39.646Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:45:54.468Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:47:34.601Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:47:51.812Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:49:39.526Z | 2.5% | 12.5% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:49:55.890Z | 2.5% | 0.0% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:50:30.821Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:50:35.506Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:50:44.167Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:51:30.779Z | 5.0% | 14.9% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:51:39.372Z | 5.0% | 14.9% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:51:54.498Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:51:55.205Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:52:32.588Z | 5.0% | 0.0% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:53:33.672Z | 1.1% | 11.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:53:44.274Z | 1.1% | 11.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:53:51.756Z | 1.1% | 0.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:54:30.814Z | 1.1% | 0.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:55:30.840Z | 0.1% | 10.5% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:55:39.652Z | 0.5% | 10.5% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:55:55.750Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:55:56.181Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:57:35.113Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:57:51.928Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:58:30.781Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:59:30.764Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:59:39.432Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T01:59:53.653Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:00:31.054Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T02:01:54.566Z | 0.1% | 10.0% | +10.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 18.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 30.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.5%. Marx fair UP is 18.2%.