VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +6.48 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+6.48 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%

Jul 27, 08:01 PMJul 27, 08:16 PMJul 27, 08:32 PMJul 27, 08:48 PMJul 27, 09:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-27T20:01:00.897Z	49.5%	93.5%	+44.0 pp
2026-07-27T20:02:55.946Z	49.5%	97.6%	+48.1 pp
2026-07-27T20:04:59.141Z	62.5%	97.5%	+35.0 pp
2026-07-27T20:06:58.934Z	62.5%	96.2%	+33.7 pp
2026-07-27T20:08:59.471Z	40.5%	95.4%	+54.9 pp
2026-07-27T20:11:00.263Z	40.5%	94.4%	+53.9 pp
2026-07-27T20:12:59.171Z	40.5%	94.9%	+54.4 pp
2026-07-27T20:15:00.244Z	36.5%	94.6%	+58.1 pp
2026-07-27T20:16:58.609Z	36.5%	94.5%	+58.0 pp
2026-07-27T20:22:56.399Z	27.5%	95.6%	+68.1 pp
2026-07-27T20:26:55.699Z	34.5%	98.5%	+64.0 pp
2026-07-27T20:28:55.228Z	34.5%	98.7%	+64.2 pp
2026-07-27T20:31:01.075Z	65.5%	99.3%	+33.8 pp
2026-07-27T20:32:56.277Z	65.5%	99.3%	+33.8 pp
2026-07-27T20:34:55.212Z	65.5%	99.6%	+34.1 pp
2026-07-27T20:36:57.588Z	62.5%	99.7%	+37.2 pp
2026-07-27T20:42:59.034Z	64.5%	99.7%	+35.2 pp
2026-07-27T20:44:58.365Z	32.5%	99.8%	+67.3 pp
2026-07-27T20:52:57.120Z	13.5%	100.0%	+86.5 pp
2026-07-27T20:55:30.789Z	8.5%	100.0%	+91.5 pp
2026-07-27T20:56:55.633Z	8.5%	100.0%	+91.5 pp
2026-07-27T20:58:54.407Z	8.5%	100.0%	+91.5 pp
2026-07-27T21:04:40.953Z	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 40.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.5%. Marx fair UP is 40.3%.