VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +6.48 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Jul 27, 08:00 PMJul 27, 08:16 PMJul 27, 08:32 PMJul 27, 08:48 PMJul 27, 09:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T20:48:54.369Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:48:58.920Z | 13.5% | 99.8% | +86.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:49:30.750Z | 13.5% | 99.8% | +86.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:50:30.744Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:50:39.198Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:51:00.096Z | 13.5% | 99.9% | +86.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:51:00.782Z | 13.5% | 99.9% | +86.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:51:31.984Z | 13.5% | 99.9% | +86.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:52:33.856Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:52:37.611Z | 13.5% | 13.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:52:57.120Z | 13.5% | 100.0% | +86.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:53:34.894Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:54:30.765Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:54:34.529Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:55:00.918Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:55:30.789Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:56:43.703Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:56:55.633Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:58:39.439Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T20:58:54.407Z | 8.5% | 100.0% | +91.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:00:32.014Z | 1.5% | 8.5% | +7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:00:34.436Z | 8.5% | 8.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:00:39.590Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:01:00.306Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:01:30.793Z | 1.5% | 100.0% | +98.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:02:30.796Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:02:34.256Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:03:30.839Z | 1.5% | 1.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:30.853Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T21:04:40.953Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.7%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.5%. Marx fair UP is 40.3%.