VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +11.96 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 27, 04:01 PMJul 27, 04:16 PMJul 27, 04:32 PMJul 27, 04:47 PMJul 27, 05:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T16:01:08.443Z | 53.0% | 22.0% | -31.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:05:01.184Z | 53.0% | 29.7% | -23.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:07:00.628Z | 63.5% | 37.0% | -26.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:09:03.416Z | 61.5% | 30.4% | -31.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:11:03.482Z | 63.5% | 31.6% | -31.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:13:00.378Z | 61.5% | 37.9% | -23.6 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:17:00.184Z | 64.0% | 23.1% | -40.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:19:03.338Z | 64.0% | 16.0% | -48.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:25:09.464Z | 62.5% | 13.6% | -48.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:27:00.340Z | 62.5% | 57.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:29:00.000Z | 82.5% | 59.2% | -23.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:58:59.606Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:59:30.698Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:03:34.127Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 33.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 15.2%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.0%. Marx fair UP is 33.8%.