VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +11.96 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 27, 04:00 PMJul 27, 04:16 PMJul 27, 04:32 PMJul 27, 04:47 PMJul 27, 05:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T16:50:30.729Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:50:39.249Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:50:59.371Z | 99.6% | 99.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:51:30.866Z | 99.4% | 99.7% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:52:33.666Z | 99.7% | 99.3% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:52:37.091Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:52:43.690Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:53:00.845Z | 99.7% | 99.2% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:53:01.369Z | 99.7% | 99.2% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:53:46.076Z | 99.7% | 99.2% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:54:30.822Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:54:34.006Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:55:22.433Z | 99.7% | 97.8% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:55:30.737Z | 99.7% | 97.8% | -1.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:56:30.883Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:56:53.829Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:57:00.365Z | 99.7% | 97.2% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:57:31.786Z | 99.7% | 97.2% | -2.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:58:30.835Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:58:34.055Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:58:59.606Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T16:59:30.698Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:00:30.778Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:00:39.124Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:01:04.814Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:01:05.447Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:01:30.830Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:02:30.918Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:02:34.009Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:03:34.127Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 33.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 15.2%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.0%. Marx fair UP is 33.8%.