VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR
BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +56.66 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 27, 01:00 PMJul 27, 01:15 PMJul 27, 01:31 PMJul 27, 01:46 PMJul 27, 02:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T13:45:31.915Z | 99.1% | 98.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:45:39.123Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:45:59.221Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:47:34.128Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:47:59.412Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:49:38.787Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:49:49.094Z | 99.1% | 99.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:49:59.814Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:50:00.400Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:50:30.832Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:51:38.827Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:51:59.516Z | 99.3% | 100.0% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:53:45.187Z | 99.3% | 99.3% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:53:49.671Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:53:58.169Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:54:30.746Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:55:32.017Z | 99.7% | 99.8% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:55:38.705Z | 99.8% | 99.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:56:00.077Z | 99.8% | 100.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:56:30.846Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:57:30.887Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:57:34.270Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:57:59.295Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:58:30.705Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:59:30.777Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:59:38.777Z | 99.7% | 99.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:59:59.714Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T13:59:59.919Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:00:30.643Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-27T14:01:58.102Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 41.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 56.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 41.0%, gross edge 58.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.7%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.