Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 1 HOUR

BTC 1-Hour Signal Post-Mortem: +56.66 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 9AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%41.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+56.66 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN129.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.7%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Jul 27, 01:02 PMJul 27, 01:17 PMJul 27, 01:31 PMJul 27, 01:45 PMJul 27, 01:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-27T13:02:43.411Z53.0%99.7%+46.7 pp
2026-07-27T13:04:40.721Z53.0%99.9%+46.9 pp
2026-07-27T13:08:42.115Z46.5%99.8%+53.3 pp
2026-07-27T13:13:54.827Z46.5%99.9%+53.4 pp
2026-07-27T13:17:00.650Z40.5%99.7%+59.2 pp
2026-07-27T13:22:51.760Z37.5%99.8%+62.3 pp
2026-07-27T13:25:56.108Z32.5%99.8%+67.3 pp
2026-07-27T13:28:55.326Z32.5%99.8%+67.3 pp
2026-07-27T13:31:55.641Z25.5%100.0%+74.5 pp
2026-07-27T13:34:55.399Z35.5%100.0%+64.5 pp
2026-07-27T13:59:30.777Z99.7%100.0%+0.3 pp
2026-07-27T13:59:59.919Z99.7%100.0%+0.3 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 41.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 56.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 41.0%, gross edge 58.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 56.7%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.