VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.48 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 08, 10:45 AMAug 08, 10:49 AMAug 08, 10:54 AMAug 08, 10:58 AMAug 08, 11:03 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T10:50:21.396Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:50:47.130Z | 49.5% | 84.7% | +35.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:51:13.940Z | 49.5% | 84.7% | +35.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:52:11.395Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:52:31.924Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:52:45.188Z | 49.5% | 87.1% | +37.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:53:14.903Z | 51.5% | 87.1% | +35.6 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:20.844Z | 43.5% | 51.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:21.617Z | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:38.443Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:54:50.592Z | 43.5% | 90.2% | +46.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:55:11.051Z | 44.5% | 90.2% | +45.7 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:56:14.177Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:56:27.212Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:56:41.923Z | 44.5% | 93.7% | +49.2 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:57:41.675Z | 37.5% | 50.5% | +13.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:58:14.362Z | 37.5% | 50.5% | +13.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:58:18.917Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:58:25.161Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:59:14.363Z | 37.5% | 99.5% | +62.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:59:44.467Z | 37.5% | 99.5% | +62.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:59:46.167Z | 37.5% | 99.5% | +62.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:00:11.215Z | 0.5% | 99.5% | +99.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:01:11.107Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:01:21.916Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:02:04.660Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:02:14.936Z | 0.5% | 38.0% | +37.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:02:22.306Z | 38.0% | 38.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:03:11.095Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:03:20.771Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 80.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.5%, gross edge 31.6%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.8%. Marx fair UP is 82.6%.