Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.48 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%50.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY80.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+28.48 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 10:48 AMAug 08, 10:52 AMAug 08, 10:56 AMAug 08, 10:59 AMAug 08, 11:03 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T10:48:44.285Z47.5%82.6%+35.1 pp
2026-08-08T10:52:45.188Z49.5%87.1%+37.6 pp
2026-08-08T10:54:50.592Z43.5%90.2%+46.7 pp
2026-08-08T10:56:41.923Z44.5%93.7%+49.2 pp
2026-08-08T10:59:14.363Z37.5%99.5%+62.0 pp
2026-08-08T10:59:46.167Z37.5%99.5%+62.0 pp
2026-08-08T11:03:20.771Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 80.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.5%, gross edge 31.6%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.8%. Marx fair UP is 82.6%.