Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%48.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+49.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN96.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 76.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 02:16 AMAug 08, 02:18 AMAug 08, 02:20 AMAug 08, 02:22 AMAug 08, 02:24 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T02:16:42.767Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-08T02:18:50.939Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-08T02:20:45.356Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-08T02:22:44.873Z70.5%100.0%+29.5 pp
2026-08-08T02:24:42.352Z76.5%100.0%+23.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.