VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +49.75 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 08, 02:15 AMAug 08, 02:20 AMAug 08, 02:24 AMAug 08, 02:29 AMAug 08, 02:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T02:19:11.637Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:20:10.720Z | 70.5% | 47.5% | -23.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:20:27.830Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:20:45.356Z | 47.5% | 100.0% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:21:11.034Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:22:11.740Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:22:23.953Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:22:44.873Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:22:46.305Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:23:10.732Z | 70.5% | 100.0% | +29.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:15.490Z | 76.5% | 73.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:19.177Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:30.239Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:41.688Z | 76.5% | 100.0% | +23.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:24:42.352Z | 76.5% | 100.0% | +23.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:25:12.058Z | 76.5% | 100.0% | +23.5 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:26:10.776Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:26:20.715Z | 76.5% | 76.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:28:12.757Z | 98.5% | 73.5% | -25.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:28:23.784Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:28:38.021Z | 98.5% | 98.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:29:10.774Z | 99.5% | 98.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:29:48.643Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:30:10.964Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:31:11.609Z | 99.5% | 90.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:31:17.695Z | 90.5% | 90.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:31:27.938Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:32:10.678Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:33:11.547Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T02:34:12.206Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 48.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 49.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.0%, gross edge 52.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.