Bitcoin Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +53.78 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY42.5%44.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+53.78 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN69.2%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.2%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%13%25%38%50%
Aug 07, 05:15 AMAug 07, 05:20 AMAug 07, 05:24 AMAug 07, 05:28 AMAug 07, 05:33 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T05:15:46.428Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-08-07T05:17:42.005Z42.5%0.0%-42.5 pp
2026-08-07T05:21:44.151Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-08-07T05:23:34.597Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-08-07T05:32:22.141Z0.2%0.2%+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T05:33:10.334Z0.0%0.2%+0.2 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 42.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 44.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 53.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 44.0%, gross edge 56.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 53.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.