VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +53.78 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.2%
Aug 07, 05:15 AMAug 07, 05:19 AMAug 07, 05:24 AMAug 07, 05:28 AMAug 07, 05:33 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T05:17:22.284Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:17:42.005Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:18:10.705Z | 42.5% | 0.0% | -42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:19:10.809Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:19:36.662Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:19:50.072Z | 23.5% | 0.0% | -23.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:20:10.715Z | 24.5% | 0.0% | -24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:21:11.169Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:21:23.349Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:21:44.151Z | 24.5% | 0.0% | -24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:22:10.731Z | 24.5% | 0.0% | -24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:23:10.191Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:23:20.889Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:23:34.597Z | 24.5% | 0.0% | -24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:24:20.557Z | 24.5% | 0.0% | -24.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:25:10.140Z | 3.5% | 24.5% | +21.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:25:18.671Z | 24.5% | 24.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:25:29.653Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:25:51.988Z | 3.5% | 0.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:26:12.368Z | 3.5% | 0.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:28:02.701Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:28:11.932Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:28:21.640Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:29:10.175Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:30:10.144Z | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:30:47.210Z | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:31:10.131Z | 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:32:10.983Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:32:22.141Z | 0.2% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T05:33:10.334Z | 0.0% | 0.2% | +0.2 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 42.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 44.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 53.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 44.0%, gross edge 56.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 53.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.