VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.97 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 06, 10:15 PMAug 06, 10:20 PMAug 06, 10:24 PMAug 06, 10:29 PMAug 06, 10:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T22:20:15.860Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:21:09.934Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:21:27.658Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:21:34.413Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:22:11.688Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:23:10.459Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:23:22.751Z | 19.5% | 19.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:23:34.952Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:23:35.574Z | 19.5% | 0.0% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:24:18.533Z | 3.0% | 0.0% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:24:32.161Z | 3.0% | 0.0% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:25:11.273Z | 3.0% | 21.5% | +18.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:25:18.505Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:25:34.673Z | 3.0% | 3.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:25:51.872Z | 3.0% | 0.0% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:25:53.909Z | 3.0% | 0.0% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:27:27.827Z | 0.8% | 0.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:27:39.393Z | 0.8% | 0.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:28:10.390Z | 0.8% | 0.8% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:28:59.386Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:29:09.806Z | 0.8% | 0.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:30:11.848Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:30:43.392Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:30:53.221Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:31:10.438Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:31:14.143Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:31:23.953Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:32:14.712Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:33:10.313Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T22:34:12.136Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 2.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 49.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.