Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.97 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY2.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+43.97 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN85.8%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 48.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%19%38%56%75%
Aug 06, 10:17 PMAug 06, 10:17 PMAug 06, 10:17 PMAug 06, 10:17 PMAug 06, 10:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T22:17:36.898Z48.5%0.0%-48.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 2.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 49.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.