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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.71 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.71 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 1.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%13%25%38%50%
Aug 06, 08:15 PMAug 06, 08:20 PMAug 06, 08:24 PMAug 06, 08:29 PMAug 06, 08:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T20:19:36.468Z40.5%0.0%-40.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:20:10.190Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:21:10.287Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:21:21.741Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:21:36.250Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:22:10.219Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:23:10.213Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:23:19.209Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:23:39.246Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:23:40.106Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:24:20.768Z16.5%0.0%-16.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:25:09.893Z9.5%16.5%+7.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:25:22.605Z16.5%16.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:25:42.580Z11.5%11.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:25:49.705Z11.5%0.0%-11.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:26:08.327Z9.5%0.0%-9.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:26:10.029Z9.5%0.0%-9.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:28:09.072Z0.5%1.5%+1.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:28:30.783Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:29:09.694Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:29:09.993Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:30:11.917Z1.5%11.5%+10.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:30:15.718Z11.5%11.5%-0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:30:24.112Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:30:53.228Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:31:13.984Z1.5%0.0%-1.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:32:16.217Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:33:10.154Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:33:20.502Z1.5%1.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T20:34:13.542Z0.5%1.5%+1.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.71 pp Edge | AntiPredict