VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.71 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.71 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 9.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Aug 06, 08:15 PMAug 06, 08:18 PMAug 06, 08:20 PMAug 06, 08:23 PMAug 06, 08:26 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T20:15:38.150Z	43.5%	0.0%	-43.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:19:36.468Z	40.5%	0.0%	-40.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:26:08.327Z	9.5%	0.0%	-9.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.