VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.91 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY62.2%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+8.91 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Aug 06, 09:16 PMAug 06, 09:21 PMAug 06, 09:25 PMAug 06, 09:29 PMAug 06, 09:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T21:16:49.229Z	50.5%	0.8%	-49.7 pp
2026-08-06T21:18:43.581Z	50.5%	0.2%	-50.3 pp
2026-08-06T21:22:33.765Z	36.5%	0.0%	-36.5 pp
2026-08-06T21:24:37.127Z	36.5%	0.0%	-36.5 pp
2026-08-06T21:32:33.402Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-06T21:34:10.185Z	0.0%	0.5%	+0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 62.2% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.9 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 11.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.9%. Marx fair UP is 62.2%.