Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +6.29 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY40.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+6.29 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-10.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 08:02 PMAug 06, 08:06 PMAug 06, 08:10 PMAug 06, 08:13 PMAug 06, 08:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T20:02:42.243Z80.5%0.0%-80.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:04:47.359Z51.5%0.0%-51.5 pp
2026-08-06T20:17:36.834Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 40.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.3 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 8.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.3%. Marx fair UP is 40.5%.