Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +21.51 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY73.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+21.51 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 02:15 PMAug 06, 02:19 PMAug 06, 02:24 PMAug 06, 02:28 PMAug 06, 02:32 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T14:15:51.102Z45.5%94.5%+49.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:17:41.199Z47.5%86.1%+38.6 pp
2026-08-06T14:21:40.036Z47.5%88.1%+40.6 pp
2026-08-06T14:23:41.146Z84.5%96.5%+12.0 pp
2026-08-06T14:25:57.477Z46.5%99.6%+53.1 pp
2026-08-06T14:32:22.140Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 73.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 21.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 23.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 21.5%. Marx fair UP is 73.8%.