VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +21.51 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 06, 02:15 PMAug 06, 02:20 PMAug 06, 02:24 PMAug 06, 02:29 PMAug 06, 02:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T14:18:10.022Z | 47.5% | 86.1% | +38.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:19:10.240Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:19:21.787Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:19:43.207Z | 47.5% | 80.1% | +32.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:20:10.275Z | 47.5% | 80.1% | +32.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:21:09.989Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:21:22.308Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:21:40.036Z | 47.5% | 88.1% | +40.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:22:14.864Z | 46.5% | 88.1% | +41.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:23:11.838Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:23:24.687Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:23:41.146Z | 84.5% | 96.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:24:19.950Z | 84.5% | 96.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:25:09.977Z | 46.5% | 96.5% | +50.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:25:14.926Z | 38.5% | 96.5% | +58.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:25:33.281Z | 46.5% | 46.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:25:57.477Z | 46.5% | 99.6% | +53.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:26:10.589Z | 46.5% | 99.6% | +53.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:28:03.317Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:28:13.659Z | 31.5% | 26.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:28:19.305Z | 26.5% | 26.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:28:34.898Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:29:09.667Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:29:48.116Z | 31.5% | 99.4% | +67.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:30:09.899Z | 0.5% | 99.4% | +98.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:31:09.630Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:32:10.481Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:32:22.140Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:33:22.519Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:34:10.874Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 73.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 21.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 23.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 21.5%. Marx fair UP is 73.8%.