VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.32 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY18.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+28.32 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-9.8%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 81.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%

Aug 06, 07:45 PMAug 06, 07:49 PMAug 06, 07:52 PMAug 06, 07:56 PMAug 06, 07:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T19:45:44.084Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-08-06T19:47:39.785Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-08-06T19:51:36.936Z	30.5%	0.0%	-30.5 pp
2026-08-06T19:53:37.067Z	29.5%	0.0%	-29.5 pp
2026-08-06T19:59:22.722Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp
2026-08-06T19:59:43.022Z	81.5%	0.0%	-81.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 18.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 31.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.0%. Marx fair UP is 17.7%.