VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.32 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 18.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 31.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 29.0%. Marx fair UP is 17.7%.