VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.79 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY51.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY91.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+36.79 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN86.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Aug 06, 01:33 PMAug 06, 01:36 PMAug 06, 01:39 PMAug 06, 01:41 PMAug 06, 01:44 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T13:33:41.953Z	37.5%	91.3%	+53.8 pp
2026-08-06T13:35:45.270Z	37.5%	94.4%	+56.9 pp
2026-08-06T13:37:42.905Z	71.5%	95.7%	+24.2 pp
2026-08-06T13:39:44.352Z	59.5%	99.9%	+40.4 pp
2026-08-06T13:44:26.985Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 91.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.8%. Marx fair UP is 91.0%.