VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +36.79 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 06, 01:31 PMAug 06, 01:35 PMAug 06, 01:38 PMAug 06, 01:42 PMAug 06, 01:46 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T13:31:37.531Z | 51.5% | 91.4% | +39.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:32:43.944Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:33:10.011Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:33:27.559Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:33:41.953Z | 37.5% | 91.3% | +53.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:34:10.162Z | 39.5% | 91.3% | +51.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:35:11.091Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:35:26.071Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:35:42.720Z | 37.5% | 94.4% | +56.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:35:45.270Z | 37.5% | 94.4% | +56.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:36:09.846Z | 37.5% | 94.4% | +56.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:37:10.003Z | 71.5% | 37.5% | -34.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:37:19.853Z | 37.5% | 37.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:37:42.905Z | 71.5% | 95.7% | +24.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:38:10.009Z | 71.5% | 95.7% | +24.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:39:28.518Z | 71.5% | 71.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:39:38.002Z | 71.5% | 99.9% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:39:43.119Z | 71.5% | 99.9% | +28.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:39:44.352Z | 59.5% | 99.9% | +40.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:40:34.303Z | 94.5% | 99.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:40:53.005Z | 94.5% | 99.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:41:13.203Z | 94.5% | 59.5% | -35.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:41:24.027Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:41:38.788Z | 94.5% | 94.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:41:55.378Z | 94.5% | 100.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:42:12.174Z | 94.5% | 100.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:44:02.760Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:44:26.985Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:45:09.655Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:46:09.825Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 91.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 51.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 36.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 39.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 36.8%. Marx fair UP is 91.0%.