VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.73 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 06, 12:01 PMAug 06, 12:04 PMAug 06, 12:08 PMAug 06, 12:12 PMAug 06, 12:16 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T12:01:30.013Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:01:36.170Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:03:20.055Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:03:36.096Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:05:30.638Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:05:43.111Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:05:44.074Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:06:13.642Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:06:17.850Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:07:13.706Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:07:23.279Z | 3.5% | 3.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:07:35.252Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:07:35.695Z | 3.5% | 100.0% | +96.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:08:14.306Z | 1.1% | 100.0% | +98.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:17.083Z | 0.4% | 0.7% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:26.030Z | 0.7% | 0.7% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:38.739Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:39.254Z | 0.7% | 100.0% | +99.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:10:09.878Z | 0.4% | 100.0% | +99.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:11:12.465Z | 0.4% | 100.0% | +99.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:12:32.594Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:13:12.965Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:13:18.440Z | 0.1% | 0.2% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:14:11.706Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:14:14.774Z | 0.4% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:14:23.655Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:14:43.911Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:15:15.518Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:16:13.509Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:16:26.738Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.