VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +64.50 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 88.5%Marx Fair UP 88.5%
Aug 06, 07:00 AMAug 06, 07:05 AMAug 06, 07:09 AMAug 06, 07:14 AMAug 06, 07:19 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T07:05:09.648Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:06:09.528Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:06:29.297Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:06:39.107Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:06:39.665Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:07:12.864Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:08:10.604Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:08:22.446Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:08:38.914Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:09:18.435Z | 39.5% | 100.0% | +60.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:10:11.203Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:10:25.049Z | 39.5% | 39.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:10:39.904Z | 39.5% | 100.0% | +60.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:12:00.898Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:12:09.865Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:12:22.352Z | 73.5% | 73.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:13:09.618Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:13:40.687Z | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:14:15.319Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:14:28.671Z | 98.5% | 100.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:15:10.522Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:15:13.142Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:15:23.012Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:15:37.951Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:16:13.164Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:17:13.115Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:17:23.258Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:18:10.863Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:19:13.121Z | 88.5% | 88.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:19:35.338Z | 88.5% | 88.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 33.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 64.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 33.4%, gross edge 67.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 64.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.