Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +64.50 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%33.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+64.50 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN178.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 88.5%Marx Fair UP 88.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 06, 07:00 AMAug 06, 07:05 AMAug 06, 07:10 AMAug 06, 07:14 AMAug 06, 07:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-06T07:00:40.833Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-06T07:02:45.460Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-06T07:04:47.095Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-08-06T07:06:39.665Z23.5%100.0%+76.5 pp
2026-08-06T07:08:38.914Z23.5%100.0%+76.5 pp
2026-08-06T07:19:35.338Z88.5%88.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 33.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 64.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 33.4%, gross edge 67.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 64.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.