VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.06 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 06, 05:15 AMAug 06, 05:19 AMAug 06, 05:24 AMAug 06, 05:28 AMAug 06, 05:32 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T05:15:37.805Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:16:09.869Z | 48.5% | 100.0% | +51.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:17:10.581Z | 78.5% | 43.5% | -35.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:17:25.198Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:17:41.249Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:18:11.095Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:19:09.361Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:19:26.912Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:19:38.787Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:19:39.864Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:20:11.788Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:21:10.862Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:21:23.650Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:21:38.331Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:22:10.356Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:23:10.771Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:23:21.462Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:23:38.290Z | 69.5% | 100.0% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:23:38.661Z | 69.5% | 100.0% | +30.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:24:21.772Z | 61.5% | 100.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:25:11.332Z | 61.5% | 69.5% | +8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:25:29.086Z | 69.5% | 69.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:25:38.340Z | 61.5% | 100.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:27:51.441Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:28:09.763Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:28:28.109Z | 61.5% | 61.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:29:11.258Z | 61.5% | 100.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:29:47.747Z | 61.5% | 100.0% | +38.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:30:09.559Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:32:47.433Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 72.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 18.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.7%. Marx fair UP is 69.9%.