VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +19.06 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY72.3%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+19.06 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-16.1%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Aug 06, 05:15 AMAug 06, 05:19 AMAug 06, 05:24 AMAug 06, 05:28 AMAug 06, 05:32 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-06T05:15:37.805Z	50.5%	100.0%	+49.5 pp
2026-08-06T05:17:41.249Z	78.5%	100.0%	+21.5 pp
2026-08-06T05:21:38.331Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-08-06T05:23:38.661Z	69.5%	100.0%	+30.5 pp
2026-08-06T05:25:38.340Z	61.5%	100.0%	+38.5 pp
2026-08-06T05:32:47.433Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 72.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 19.1 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 18.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.7%. Marx fair UP is 69.9%.