VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +52.77 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 01:46 PMAug 05, 01:50 PMAug 05, 01:54 PMAug 05, 01:59 PMAug 05, 02:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T13:50:31.346Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:50:42.175Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:50:43.082Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:51:15.835Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:52:15.778Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:52:22.706Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:52:38.006Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:53:16.113Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:54:16.005Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:54:26.070Z | 57.5% | 57.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:54:41.027Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:55:19.986Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:56:16.144Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:56:32.700Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:56:46.301Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:56:46.828Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:57:16.086Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:58:15.775Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:58:25.551Z | 78.5% | 78.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:58:50.826Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:58:51.173Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:59:15.894Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:00:16.133Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:00:27.754Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:00:36.629Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:00:44.124Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:01:30.133Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:02:16.051Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:02:30.980Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:03:17.478Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 32.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 45.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 52.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 45.0%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 52.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.