VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +52.77 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 01:48 PMAug 05, 01:52 PMAug 05, 01:55 PMAug 05, 01:59 PMAug 05, 02:02 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T13:48:46.563Z | 32.0% | 100.0% | +68.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:50:43.082Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:52:38.006Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:54:41.027Z | 57.5% | 100.0% | +42.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:58:51.173Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:59:15.894Z | 78.5% | 100.0% | +21.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:02:30.980Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 32.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 45.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 52.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 45.0%, gross edge 55.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 52.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.