Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 15-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.97 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY31.5%30.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+67.97 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 05, 12:48 PMAug 05, 12:51 PMAug 05, 12:55 PMAug 05, 12:58 PMAug 05, 01:01 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-05T12:48:12.653Z31.5%100.0%+68.5 pp
2026-08-05T12:51:02.600Z21.5%100.0%+78.5 pp
2026-08-05T12:55:44.462Z0.1%0.5%+0.5 pp
2026-08-05T12:58:45.712Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:01:58.177Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 31.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 30.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 68.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 30.1%, gross edge 71.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 68.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.