VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +67.97 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 05, 12:45 PMAug 05, 12:49 PMAug 05, 12:53 PMAug 05, 12:57 PMAug 05, 01:01 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T12:45:43.622Z | 21.5% | 23.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:46:00.291Z | 23.5% | 23.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:46:01.662Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:48:12.653Z | 31.5% | 100.0% | +68.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:49:47.590Z | 31.5% | 31.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:49:57.041Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:50:37.999Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:51:02.600Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:51:46.179Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:52:36.672Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:52:46.713Z | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:53:09.868Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:53:10.649Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:53:45.810Z | 21.5% | 100.0% | +78.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:54:37.505Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:54:47.506Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:55:04.725Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:55:44.462Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:56:48.486Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:57:23.011Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:57:23.769Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:58:45.712Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:00:15.603Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:00:36.333Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:01:45.531Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:01:58.177Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 31.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 30.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 68.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 30.1%, gross edge 71.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 68.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.