VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN
BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.50 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Aug 05, 01:00 PMAug 05, 01:04 PMAug 05, 01:09 PMAug 05, 01:13 PMAug 05, 01:17 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T13:00:36.333Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:01:45.531Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:01:47.702Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:02:36.240Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:03:07.156Z | 44.5% | 100.0% | +55.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:03:40.555Z | 23.5% | 100.0% | +76.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:04:40.371Z | 18.5% | 25.5% | +7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:04:54.167Z | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:05:14.277Z | 25.5% | 100.0% | +74.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:05:40.748Z | 20.5% | 100.0% | +79.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:06:42.120Z | 20.5% | 25.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:06:54.927Z | 25.5% | 25.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:07:09.910Z | 20.5% | 20.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:07:26.246Z | 20.5% | 100.0% | +79.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:07:42.215Z | 18.5% | 100.0% | +81.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:08:39.759Z | 18.5% | 18.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:08:50.443Z | 18.5% | 18.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:09:39.526Z | 18.5% | 100.0% | +81.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:10:18.230Z | 18.5% | 100.0% | +81.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:10:19.828Z | 18.5% | 100.0% | +81.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:10:38.323Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:11:44.441Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:13:15.862Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:15:49.698Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:15:55.621Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:16:39.350Z | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:17:27.147Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:17:35.885Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 70.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 19.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.5%. Marx fair UP is 70.8%.