VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 15 MIN

BTC 15-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.50 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY70.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+17.50 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-9.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Aug 05, 01:03 PMAug 05, 01:06 PMAug 05, 01:10 PMAug 05, 01:13 PMAug 05, 01:17 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-05T13:03:07.156Z	44.5%	100.0%	+55.5 pp
2026-08-05T13:05:14.277Z	25.5%	100.0%	+74.5 pp
2026-08-05T13:17:27.147Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-05T13:17:35.885Z	0.0%	0.5%	+0.5 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 70.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 19.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.5%. Marx fair UP is 70.8%.